这篇论文搞了个Argus基准，比较了27种不确定性方法在4个VLM模型和4个GUI数据集上的表现。结论很实在：方法排名换模型就不灵了，闭源还得单独测。做智能体部署的可以看看。
Argus基准系统评估了4个VLM智能体和4个数据集上27种开箱不确定性量化方法，以及3个闭源供应商的8种方法。主要发现是UQ排名在固定模型下跨数据集稳定（Spearman rho最高0.969），但跨模型类和接口时衰减。隐状态和密度法在开箱族中最稳定，而CoCoA-1MCA、Focus等方法在特定场景胜出。闭源UQ需在目标上重新排序，平均转移相关性仅+0.08。校准后局部加权盘半径缩小40-60%，但校准-测试不匹配时覆盖度下降。
Uncertainty Quantification for Computer-Use Agents: A Benchmark across Vision-Language Models and GUI Grounding Datasets
Computer-use agents turn vision-language model (VLM) predictions into executable GUI clicks, so reliable uncertainty estimates are essential for rejection, calibration, miss-severity ranking, and spatial safety regions. Yet evidence on post-hoc uncertainty quantification (UQ) for these agents is fragmented across isolated model and dataset pairs, leaving it unclear whether UQ rankings stay stable when the agent, benchmark, or observable interface changes. We present Argus, a cross-regime benchmark for post-hoc UQ in single-step executable GUI grounding: a 27-method open-weight matrix over 4 VLM agents and 4 datasets, plus an 8-method closed-source matrix across 3 frontier vendors where logits, hidden states, and attention maps are unavailable. Evaluated methods span logit-based scores, sampling and consistency measures, hidden-state and density estimators (Mahalanobis, SAPLMA), attention-based scores, P(True) and verbalised-confidence prompting, and split-conformal prediction. The main finding is selective transfer: UQ rankings are stable across datasets for a fixed model, but degrade across model classes and observable interfaces. Hidden-state and density methods are the most stable open-weight family, while CoCoA-1MCA, Focus, sampling-based scores, and verbalised self-assessment win in specific regimes. Within-model ranking transfer is strong (Spearman rho up to 0.969), but cross-tier transfer to closed-source vendors averages only +0.08, so closed-source UQ should be reranked on the target rather than extrapolated. Conformal click regions show score-level discrimination is not enough for deployment: locally weighted disks shrink radii by 40-60% when the plug-in UQ is calibrated, but coverage degrades under calibration-test or interface mismatch. We release per-item records, calibration/test splits, UQ scores, and analysis scripts for regime-aware UQ selection in GUI agents.