做公共卫生预测或传染病建模的团队，终于有了能自动生成专家级模型的工具，不用再靠人工反复调参——建议关注其开源代码和冷启动能力。
研究团队提出一种利用大语言模型（LLM）引导树搜索的自主系统，可迭代生成、评估和优化传染病预测软件。在2025-2026年美国呼吸道季节的前瞻性实时评估中，该系统自主发现针对流感、COVID-19和RSV的多样化模型，其集成预测性能一致达到或超过CDC人工策划的黄金标准集成。系统成功应对RSV数据稀缺的“冷启动”场景，并通过优化对数尺度距离指标和自动裁判机制确保模型可靠性。该框架克服了建模人力瓶颈，使专家级疾病预测能快速部署到更细粒度的地理区域和新兴病原体。
Prospective multi-pathogen disease forecasting using autonomous LLM-guided tree search
Probabilistic forecasting of infectious diseases is crucial for public health but relies on labor-intensive manual model curation by expert modeling teams. This bespoke development bottlenecks scalability to granular geographic resolutions or emerging pathogens. Here, we present an autonomous system using Large Language Model (LLM)-guided tree search to iteratively generate, evaluate, and optimize executable forecasting software. In a fully prospective, real-time evaluation during the 2025-2026 US respiratory season, the system autonomously discovered methodologically diverse models for influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Aggregating these machine-generated models yielded an ensemble that consistently matched or outperformed the gold-standard, human-curated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) hub ensembles out-of-sample. The system successfully navigated data-scarce "cold start" scenarios for RSV. Moreover, controlled retrospective ablations revealed that optimizing log-scale distance metrics prevents reward hacking, while an automated judge-in-the-loop ensures structural fidelity to complex scientific theories. By autonomously translating epidemiological theory into accurate, transparent code, this framework overcomes the modeling labor bottleneck, enabling rapid deployment of expert-level disease forecasting at unprecedented scales.