生存分析是医学、可靠性工程等领域的核心问题，SDPM 用扩散模型绕过了传统方法的参数假设和离散化限制，做生存预测的团队可以直接用公开代码复现，值得关注。
生存分析旨在从含删失数据中估计事件时间分布，但现有方法常对风险函数施加结构假设或离散化时间轴，限制了灵活性并引入近似误差。本文提出生存扩散概率模型（SDPM），一种基于去噪扩散模型的连续时间生存分析方法。SDPM 直接建模生存结果的条件分布，利用条件独立删失假设，通过生成样本结合 Kaplan-Meier 估计器得到生存函数，无需参数假设或时间离散化。在十个真实数据集上，SDPM 在 C-index、时间依赖 AUC 和 Brier 评分上达到与树模型、提升模型和神经网络模型相当的预测性能。合成数据实验表明，SDPM 能更准确地恢复底层连续生存分布的形状，消融研究验证了目标空间变换对事件率校准和预测区分度的提升。
SDPM: Survival Diffusion Probabilistic Model for Continuous-Time Survival Analysis
Survival analysis aims to estimate a time-to-event distribution from data with censored observations. Many existing methods either impose structural assumptions on the hazard function or discretize the time axis, which may limit flexibility and introduce approximation errors. We propose the Survival Diffusion Probabilistic Model (SDPM), a generative approach to continuous-time survival analysis. SDPM models the conditional distribution of the survival outcome, represented by the pair of observed time and censoring indicator, $\mathbb{P}(T,δ\mid \mathbf{x})$, using a denoising diffusion model. Under the assumption of conditionally independent censoring, conditional samples generated by the model can be transformed into survival function estimates using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. This formulation avoids parametric assumptions on the event-time distribution and does not require a discretization of the output time space. The model operates in a transformed target space, using standardized log-times and a continuous Gaussian-mixture representation of the censoring indicator. We evaluate SDPM on ten real survival datasets and compare it with five strong baselines, including tree-based, boosting-based, and neural survival models. Results show that SDPM achieves competitive predictive performance across C-index, integrated time-dependent AUC, and integrated Brier score. A study on synthetic Cox-Weibull data demonstrates that SDPM can recover the shape of an underlying continuous survival distribution more accurately than a strong nonparametric baseline when sufficiently many samples are generated. An ablation study confirms the importance of the proposed target-space transformations, which improve event-rate calibration, reduce invalid generated times, and provide consistent gains in predictive discrimination. Codes implementing the proposed model are publicly available.