肿瘤基因组学研究者终于有了可复现的耐药预测基准——OncoTraj 直接点出当前单点NGS的模态瓶颈，做纵向建模或液体活检分析的团队值得关注，v2 的 ctDNA 设计方向会直接影响你的实验方案。
OncoTraj 是一个针对EGFR突变非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）患者接受一线奥希替尼治疗后耐药预测的公开基准数据集，整合了来自MSK-CHORD、AACR Project GENIE BPC NSCLC和FLAURA研究的813例患者数据。该基准定义了三个任务：12个月进展二分类、进展时间回归和耐药机制六分类。当前v1版本仅使用单时间点组织NGS特征，所有模型（包括LSTM和多任务Transformer）在干净评估中均未超越随机水平，表明瓶颈在于输入模态而非算法。基准确认了TP53共突变与12个月进展率从29%升至59%的关联。OncoTraj为纵向耐药预测提供了可复现的基线，并明确了v2版本需引入连续ctDNA数据的设计方向。
OncoTraj: a public benchmark for longitudinal resistance prediction in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer on osimertinib
Resistance to first-line osimertinib in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the canonical example of predictable clonal evolution under therapeutic pressure, yet no public benchmark exists for training or evaluating computational models on the corresponding longitudinal patient trajectories. We introduce OncoTraj, a public benchmark of 813 EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients receiving first-line osimertinib, harmonized from three real-world clinical-genomic sources: MSK-CHORD (672 patients), AACR Project GENIE BPC NSCLC (34 patients), and the FLAURA molecular-resistance supplement (107 patients). OncoTraj defines three locked tasks: (A) binary classification of progression by a fixed 12-month landmark, (B) regression of time-to-first-progression in days, and (C) six-class classification of the dominant resistance mechanism. We release the harmonized dataset, patient-level train/validation/test splits with an audited no-leakage guarantee, an open-source evaluation harness, and six reference baselines spanning a majority-class predictor, logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, an LSTM, and a multi-task transformer. With v1's single-timepoint snapshot features, no task clears chance on clean within-source evaluation: the uniformity of this ceiling across every model class localizes the limit to the input modality (single-snapshot tissue NGS rather than serial ctDNA), not the algorithm. The benchmark does recover a reproducible literature-consistent association: TP53 co-mutation raises the 12-month progression rate from 29% to 59% cohort-wide. OncoTraj establishes a reproducible, leakage-audited baseline and converts the modality limit into concrete design requirements for a serial-ctDNA-enriched v2.