这篇论文用贝叶斯网络模拟阿尔茨海默病的AT(N)级联，比黑箱预测更可解释。它从ADNI数据中找到了tau扩散的关键时间窗，对神经影像研究有参考价值。
该论文提出BN-LTE（贝叶斯网络与潜在时间嵌入）框架，用于阿尔茨海默病进展的阶段感知因果建模。模型从基线生物标志物图像估计疾病伪时间，并依据AT(N)级联顺序约束有向依赖。在ADNI数据上，BN-LTE在tau蛋白扩散的空间重建上优于多个预测基线。模型识别出中伪时间窗口的淀粉样蛋白敏感性，并通过g-formula对比、AIPW和鲁棒性分析验证。代码已在GitHub公开。
Bayesian Networks with Latent Time Embedding for Stage-Aware Causal Modeling of Alzheimer's Disease Progression
Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is often described through the amyloid-tau-neurodegeneration, or AT(N), cascade. However, most longitudinal models represent this cascade either as a fixed sequence of biomarkers or as a black-box forecasting task. This makes it difficult to determine when biologically guided biomarker relationships influence future regional pathology. In this study, we introduce Bayesian Networks with Latent Time Embedding (BN-LTE), a Bayesian structural framework for stage-aware modeling of AD progression. BN-LTE estimates disease pseudotime from baseline biomarker profiles and constrains directed dependencies according to biologically plausible AT(N) ordering. Posterior spline-varying structural equations are then used to link initial multimodal measurements with future annualized regional tau-PET change. Across repeated subject-disjoint evaluations using ADNI data, BN-LTE shows strong spatial reconstruction of tau progression compared with the included forecasting baselines. Beyond spatial reconstruction, BN-LTE recovers posterior stage-varying AT(N)-constrained effects and identifies a mid-pseudotime window of amyloid sensitivity. This window is supported by model-implied g-formula contrasts, root-adjusted AIPW, mechanism-sensitive ablations, and robustness analyses across spline and prior specifications. Overall, these findings position BN-LTE as a Bayesian structural framework for forecasting tau progression while examining stage-dependent AT(N)-cascade mechanisms in observational longitudinal neuroimaging data. Our code is available at https://github.com/danleneurocom/BN-LTE.