这篇论文教大模型在不确定时怎么选策略，辅导学生或写评审都管用，贝叶斯方法比保守方法更聪明。
arXiv 论文提出基于贝叶斯决策理论和风险规避规则的几种不确定性感知算法，用于大语言模型在辅导和自动同行评审中的决策。在生成导师回复或评审时，将策略与分数的不确定性纳入考量，并用共形预测对策略和分数提供统计保证。实验表明，贝叶斯方法在高模糊性下优于风险规避规则，后者可能因追求通用输出而降低效用。
Uncertainty-Aware Generation and Decision-Making Under Ambiguity
With rapidly improving capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in many complex real-world tasks. Beyond requiring in-depth knowledge and reasoning skills, many of these tasks exhibit a high degree of subjectivity and require that the outputs of the model can be trusted. While a lot of progress has been made to train better models, decision-making algorithms have received less attention. In this work, we present and evaluate various uncertainty-aware decision-making algorithms based on Bayesian decision theory and risk-averse decision making on the tasks of tutoring and automatic peer reviewing. Concretely, we take uncertainty over tutoring strategies and review scores into account when generating a tutor response or review and use conformal prediction to provide guarantees over strategy and score. We find empirically that these algorithms can improve the utility of the generations but need to be carefully implemented when ambiguity is high. For example, risk-averse rules can degrade performance by optimizing for generic outputs, while Bayesian methods tend to perform better. Our work uses techniques from decision theory to improve LLM-based decision-making and outlines open challenges for the community.