一张图告诉你开源模型追上GPT-4还要多久，Fable 5本地跑要等到2028年。数据很具体。
一张来自r/LocalLLaMA社区的图表显示，云端前沿模型能力迁移到笔记本可运行的开源权重模型平均滞后约24.8个月。其中GPT-3级能力滞后37个月，GPT-3.5级滞后17个月，GPT-4级滞后约24个月。该趋势预测Fable/Mythos 5级能力（对标GPT-5）有望在2028年7月前后出现在高端消费硬件上。
源：https://t.co/gVh2J0cxD1
源： x.com/kimmonismus/st… Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus Fable 5 probably running locally in about two years. That is the projection in this r/LocalLLaMA chart. It tracks how long it takes for cloud-frontier capability to become broadly comparable in laptop-runnable open-weight models. The observed average lag: ~24.8 months. GPT-3-class capability: 37 months. GPT-3.5-class: 17 months. GPT-4-class: ~24 months. The projection puts Fable / Mythos 5-class capability on high-end consumer hardware around July 2028. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 0 🔄 0 ❤️ 0 👀 58 ⚡