Sam Altman talks about his miscalculation on AI adoption timeline, highlighting the slower pace of societal and economic adaptation to AI. Learn how this could impact the future of AI development.
Sam Altman acknowledges overestimating the speed of AI adoption and the timeline for AGI. He believes society and economy will adapt more slowly to AI advancements. Altman also notes that current AI models can only achieve two of ten proposed tasks, indicating a longer path to full AGI. He expresses gratitude for the slower pace of adaptation, which he sees as beneficial for smoother transitions.
Below @sama is saying that he was wrong on how quickly people would adopt AI, but not admitting that...
Below @sama is saying that he was wrong on how quickly people would adopt AI, but not admitting that he was wrong about how soon AGI would come. But he was. He literally said in January 2025 that he was “confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it“ - but 19 months later we can still can’t really trust the AI we have got, not even the very best models.* Adoption will MUCH higher once AGI actually arrives. But that’s still many years and multiple breakthroughs away. That’s the real issue, that Altman doesn’t want talk about. —– *AI can still do at most only two of the ten sample targets that I proposed in a public with bet Miles Brundage. And that’s being charitable. [See garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-a… ] Fireside Alpha @firesidealpha Sam Altman admits he was wrong on AI's timeline and says society and the economy will adapt more slowly "I thought when we got to GPT-4, which was back in 2023, that very quickly after that there was going to be much more disruption, software businesses up for grabs right away, than it turned out to be." "I think I was wrong about a few things, but one in terms of the speed: the economy just has so much inertia." "People keep doing the same things, buying from the same company, wanting to use their tools the same way. I think this is actually a positive in many ways, and it's going to make this big transition go smoother and slower. I'm grateful for it." "But it means we've all been too ambitious on timelines. Even with this incredible technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly." Your browser does not support the video tag. 🔗 View on Twitter 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 14 🔄 6 ❤️ 67 👀 9846 📊 17 ⚡