METR 报告：Anthropic 研发提速约 2 倍，Claude 自身是主引擎
METR 翻了 Anthropic 11 周内部数据，说 Claude 把自家研发速度拉快 2 倍，员工自报 12 倍效率，细节比官方报告狠多了。
METR 花了 11 周分析 Anthropic 内部研发数据并访谈核心研究员后发布报告。结论是 Anthropic 的模型改进速度约为 2024 到 2025 年节奏的 2 倍，其中约 80% 的加速来自其自用 AI，训练算力增长被排除为原因。METR 还发现 Anthropic 8 月公开的风险报告低估了实际速度，且在算法、算力、数据三方面 12 个月内未见瓶颈。员工自报使用 Model 4 获得约 12 倍生产率提升，有人称 Mythos Preview 是第一个可用于自主实验的模型。
So much revelation from METR's latest report.
Recursive self-improvement (RSI) at Anthropic has moved from theory to solid measurement, and the early loop already runs at about 2x.
After they spent 11 weeks going through Anthropic’s internal R&D data and interviewing its key researchers.
> Anthropic is now improving its models at about twice its 2024 to 2025 pace.
> Claude itself is the main engine. METR’s best guess puts about 80% of current acceleration on Anthropic’s own AI use, and it rules out faster growth in training compute as the cause.
> Anthropic’s own public August risk report understated how fast things were moving. METR reached that conclusion in a separate review that compared the public report with the private version and other nonpublic data.
> METR saw nothing likely to slow this loop within 12 months, with no bottleneck in algorithms, compute or data. Redacted evidence also hints that acceleration may already exceed 2x and keep climbing.
> Staff self-report roughly 12x productivity gains from Model 4, and researchers see “signs of life” for AI doing key training work alone. One called Mythos Preview the first model useful for autonomous experiments.
> Anthropic redacted most of the evidence METR found most telling, saying it could help rivals go faster. It also canceled midway a planned check of how its compute splits between capabilities and safety.
