这项研究为科学预测提供了可量化的新工具，做科技政策分析、创新管理或科研方向判断的团队，可以直接用其方法识别跨领域概念扩散的早期信号。
该研究利用 OpenAlex 中量子计算子领域的概念共现网络，构建了时间分辨的概念对关系，并追踪每个概念对的上游引用谱系和下游扩散。研究者训练 LightGBM 模型，基于分布和多样性特征预测四个结果：内源强化、外源扩散、两者比率和扩散熵。在控制整体出版增长后，内源强化在量子计算基准中几乎不可预测，而外源扩散和熵的预测性很强（R² 高达 0.78），且由上游异质性、引用广度和分布离散度驱动。在机器人、先进材料和神经植入物领域的复现验证了外源扩散是跨领域的最可预测目标（R²_test 约 0.60-0.87），而神经植入物中内源预测性显著上升（R²_test=0.83），表明量子计算的不对称性并非普遍适用。案例研究显示，熵的急剧增加对应新概念前沿的开启，而熵的崩溃则标志技术收敛或范式更替。
Forecasting Conceptual Diffusion in Science: The Case of Quantum Computing
Understanding and anticipating scientific change requires models that distinguish between endogenous consolidation and exogenous diffusion of scientific concepts. Using the quantum computing subtree of concepts in OpenAlex, we construct a temporally resolved concept co-occurrence network and track each concept pair through its upstream citation lineage and downstream diffusion. We train LightGBM models on distributional and diversity-aware features to predict four outcomes: endogenous reinforcement, exogenous diffusion, their ratio, and diffusion entropy. After controlling for overall publication growth of the scientific body, endogenous reinforcement proves largely unpredictable in the primary quantum-computing benchmark. In contrast, exogenous diffusion and entropy are strongly predictable ($R^2$ up to $0.78à) and are driven by upstream heterogeneity, citation breadth, and distributional dispersion, as shown by SHAP analyses; replications on robotics, advanced materials, and neuro implants confirm that exogenous diffusion remains the top-ranked target across fields ($R^2_test \sim 0.60-0.87$), while endogenous predictability rises markedly in neuro implants (R^2_test = 0.83), indicating that the quantum-computing asymmetry does not generalise uniformly. Case studies reveal that sharp entropy increases coincide with the opening of new conceptual frontiers, while entropy collapses signal technological convergence or paradigm displacement. These results demonstrate that conceptual diffusion is governed by stable structural regularities embedded in semantic and citation environments. By identifying early diversity-based signals of cross-domain uptake, the approach provides a scalable foundation for anticipatory scientometrics, technology foresight, and innovation-oriented policy analysis in rapidly evolving research fields.