Event ·Multi-source

tszzl：模型出现能力火花意味着几个月到几年内将超越人类

OpenAI 前研究成员 tszzl 发帖称，当模型出现任何能力的早期迹象时，距离它在该项上超越人类通常只需几个月到几年。他以数学为例：今天还停留在小学数学水平，明天就可能处理 Navier-Stokes 方程这类难题。他甚至认为讨论这类结果时无论多夸张都偏保守，几乎总是在低估。

Current read

前 OpenAI 研究员发了个大胆判断：模型刚冒头的能力，几个月到几年就会反超人类，听听他怎么论证的。

11 sources52° AI heatLast updated 2026/11/2 23:46:36

Evidence

11 sources

Primary sourceroon

2026/11/2 23:46:36View source

Related source 1Elad Gil

2026/11/2 17:25:02View source

Related source 2Nathan Lambert

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Related source 3rohanpaul_ai

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Related source 4宝玉

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Related source 5Ethan Mollick

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Related source 6SuperTechFans

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Related source 7kimmonismus

2026/11/1 10:51:09View source

Related source 8@koltregaskes

2026/11/1 12:31:28View source

Related source 9IT之家

2026/11/1 14:19:52View source

Related source 10VTV Công nghệ

2026/11/1 17:51:00View source

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