IndustryMulti-source
tszzl：模型出现能力火花意味着几个月到几年内将超越人类
Why we picked it
前 OpenAI 研究员发了个大胆判断：模型刚冒头的能力，几个月到几年就会反超人类，听听他怎么论证的。
OpenAI 前研究成员 tszzl 发帖称，当模型出现任何能力的早期迹象时，距离它在该项上超越人类通常只需几个月到几年。他以数学为例：今天还停留在小学数学水平，明天就可能处理 Navier-Stokes 方程这类难题。他甚至认为讨论这类结果时无论多夸张都偏保守，几乎总是在低估。
Original · roon
when you see “sparks” of any ability in ai models that means you’re months-years from it being superhuman at it. today grade school math, tomorrow navier stokes. it is hard to overhype these results. you are almost always underhyping no matter what
