一位读者做出了具体AI行业预测，从泡沫到公司倒闭、从开源主导到教育影响，观点尖锐，值得一读。
Alice预测未来2年内AI股票泡沫崩溃，市场将出现类似2008年的大规模修正。大部分AI公司倒闭，但云提供商和芯片制造商可能幸存。Anthropic和OpenAI等推理公司可能被政府救助否则违约。AI应用集中在聊天机器人、设备端助手（苹果）和医疗影像，主要由开源或设备端模型驱动。教育领域AI使用降低学生质量，学校转向课堂纸笔考试。
love that one of my readers made her own, explicit set of public predictions. 🙏
love that one of my readers made her own, explicit set of public predictions. 🙏 Alice 🍁 @alisameowmeowmi I want to post my predictions for 2ish years horizon. AI stock bubble collapses due to fundamentals not working out with the assets prices. Overleveraged and overdebted market will go down in a massive correction by the like of 2008. Most AI companies will burn, although some will survive. Specifically, cloud providers, chip makers are among the likely to survive. Inference companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are likely to be bailed out by gov and to default otherwise. Companies sitting in the API level will default. Enshittification of the internet will reduce although it will still be above pre-llm era. AI will be most used in niche scenarios like support chat bots, on device helpers (like Apple does), and specific needs like medical imaging. All of that to be mostly powered by open source or at least on-device models. On-device LLM will be default LLM in general. People would still use AI for coding but not all people and certainly not for all purposes. Software professions would be recognized to be human-first. Even more so with artistic professions. The most advanced models will be expensive and realistically available only for governments, research institutions, and other elite use. Both due to price tag and secrecy concerns. AI exposure in education will continue to worsen the education quality of graduating students. In mitigation attempt, Universities and schools will be switching to almost only inclass paper assesments. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 2 🔄 2 ❤️ 24 👀 3574 📊 4 ⚡