社区图表算了一笔账：GPT-4级别能力两年后就能在笔记本上跑，开源追赶速度比你想象得快。
r/LocalLLaMA社区的图表预测，云端前沿模型能力平均滞后约24.8个月才能在笔记本电脑可运行的开源模型中复现。GPT-3类能力滞后37个月，GPT-3.5类滞后17个月，GPT-4类约24个月。该趋势线推测Fable/Mythos 5类能力将于2028年7月左右在高端消费级硬件上可用。
If that happens, where does it leave Anthropic and OpenAI? And Oracle, CoreWeave, Nebius, xAI, etc...
If that happens, where does it leave Anthropic and OpenAI? And Oracle, CoreWeave, Nebius, xAI, etc? Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus Fable 5 probably running locally in about two years. That is the projection in this r/LocalLLaMA chart. It tracks how long it takes for cloud-frontier capability to become broadly comparable in laptop-runnable open-weight models. The observed average lag: ~24.8 months. GPT-3-class capability: 37 months. GPT-3.5-class: 17 months. GPT-4-class: ~24 months. The projection puts Fable / Mythos 5-class capability on high-end consumer hardware around July 2028. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 6 🔄 2 ❤️ 24 👀 3319 📊 7 ⚡