本地开源模型约24个月追上云端前沿能力
社区图表算了一笔账：GPT-4级别能力两年后就能在笔记本上跑，开源追赶速度比你想象得快。
r/LocalLLaMA社区的图表预测，云端前沿模型能力平均滞后约24.8个月才能在笔记本电脑可运行的开源模型中复现。GPT-3类能力滞后37个月，GPT-3.5类滞后17个月，GPT-4类约24个月。该趋势线推测Fable/Mythos 5类能力将于2028年7月左右在高端消费级硬件上可用。
If that happens, where does it leave Anthropic and OpenAI? And Oracle, CoreWeave, Nebius, xAI, etc? Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus Fable 5 probably running locally in about two years. That is the projection in this r/LocalLLaMA chart. It tracks how long it takes for cloud-frontier capability to become broadly comparable in laptop-runnable open-weight models. The observed average lag: ~24.8 months. GPT-3-class capability: 37 months. GPT-3.5-class: 17 months. GPT-4-class: ~24 months. The projection puts Fable / Mythos 5-class capability on high-end consumer hardware around July 2028. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 6 🔄 2 ❤️ 24 👀 3319 📊 7 ⚡
