红杉用20年数据告诉你，追热点造不出好公司，真正的趋势会提前五六年冒头。
红杉资本分析了2007年以来Hacker News上每年最热门的主题，并与当年成立的最高价值公司对比。数据显示，Airbnb成立于2008年，当时热门话题是Google；Uber在2009年出现，当时讨论聚焦底层编程；Anthropic在2021年创立，而当时互联网被加密货币占据。新趋势通常提前五到六年显现，LLM在2016年首次进入前15名，直到2022年才登顶。长期持续的炒作是可靠信号，马斯克相关话题连续14年进入前15。
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阅读原文： x.com/Konstantine/st… Konstantine Buhler @Konstantine Should you chase hype or ignore it? The tech industry has been debating this for decades. So at @Sequoia , we dug into 20 years of hype data. This summer, I worked with Sequoia intern @ochonaut to measure hype over the past 2 decades. The chart below ranks the most hyped topics on Hacker News for every year since 2007. Under each year sits the most valuable company founded that year. Here are a few observations: 1/ The top company founded in a given year is rarely related to the hype of that period. Airbnb was founded in 2008, when the top topic was Google. Uber arrived in 2009, while the conversation revolved around low-level programming. Anthropic came in 2021, while the internet was consumed by crypto. Chasing hype rarely leads to enduring outcomes. The top companies of recent years have yet to be decided. 2/ New trends announce themselves five to six years early. LLMs first cracked the top 15 in 2016 and took until 2022 to hit #1 . AI coding entered at #12 in 2021 and tops the list in 2026. Crypto entered in 2011 before 2017 and 2021 peaks. “New” trends don’t appear out of nowhere, and internet subcommunities are often the first to know where the puck is headed. 3/ Long-term “hype” is a durable signal. The “Musk-Verse” has been a top 15 topic for every one of the past 14 years. Sustained attention on the internet is rare and tends to mark something real. Next up, we want to run the same analysis with sources like X and LinkedIn. If that's of interest, give us some encouragement and we'll share the results. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 0 🔄 0 ❤️ 0 ⚡