Anthropic发布预测，Claude模型有望在明年实现AI研发自动化，值得关注其发展进程。
Anthropic发布2026年风险报告，预测Claude模型将在2026年12月至2027年2月实现完全自动化AI研发。报告提供Anthropic ECI（AECI）分数增长数据和CoBench基准测试分数。预测模型达到168 AECI分数即可实现AI研发自动化，或182 AECI分数在更悲观的情况下。
源：https://t.co/CNyInJoXH8
源： x.com/KhanSaifM/stat… Saif M. Khan @KhanSaifM My extrapolation from data in Anthropic's August 2026 risk report suggests fully automated AI R&D sometime between Dec. 2026 to Feb. 2027 (or with pessimistic assumptions, more like 2028). In the risk report, Anthropic provides data on Anthropic ECI (AECI) score growth per year as well as AECI and CoBench scores for several recent Claude models. (CoBench is an Anthropic-internal automated AI R&D benchmark.) It also asserts "that a model which was truly capable of fully substituting for Anthropic research staff would be able to score at least 85% on [CoBench.]" Using these datapoints, see two Claude-generated charts: 1) CoBench vs. AECI scores, which suggests that a 168 AECI score gets you full AI R&D automation (or 182 AECI with a more pessimistic fit); and 2) projecting when Claude models achieve AECI scores of 168 and 182. This is a quite naive extrapolation and I have no idea if Anthropic would endorse the result! 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 0 🔄 1 ❤️ 0 👀 360 ⚡