连续治疗效应预测是因果推断的难点，做医疗、经济等领域的因果分析团队可以直接用这个基础模型零样本预测，省去大量模型训练成本。
因果推断在多个学科中至关重要，但连续治疗设置（干预变量为连续值）的研究远少于二元治疗。本文提出首个针对连续治疗设置的因果基础模型，通过元学习在未见任务上预测因果效应，无需额外训练。模型设计了一种新的数据生成过程先验，生成丰富的因果训练语料，并训练Transformer利用上下文学习从观测数据重建个体治疗-响应曲线。该模型在个体治疗-响应曲线重建任务上达到最先进性能，超越了专门训练的因果模型。
Causal Foundation Models with Continuous Treatments
Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks.