行业多源确认
博主预测 GPT-7 或 GPT-8 或将在 2027-2028 年达到 AGI
精选理由
一个两年前的 AGI 时间表预测被翻出来验证，作者还顺带聊了 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 该不该自己做操作系统，观点挺有意思。
博主 koltregaskes 重提自己两年前的预测：GPT-7 或 GPT-8 可能在 2027 到 2028 年达到 AGI，并认为该预测有不少成真的可能。他指出当前模型仍有幻觉、准确率不足和知识分布不均的问题。文中还提出，Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这类实验室需要自研操作系统，掌握从模型到操作系统的全栈控制权。
原文 · @koltregaskes
A couple of years ago I predicted GPT-7 or 8 to be AGI by 2027 or 2028. It's looking quite likely so it will be a very big fluke if that's correct.
But with hallucinations, current accuracy and jagged knowledge still very jagged, we still have quite a way to go.
But for the labs 100% in-house is clearly the way. You need control of the full stack. In reality this is still probably only the OS providers so Anthropic and OpenAI need their own operating system.
