METR 估算：Anthropic 模型能力进步速度加快约 1.9 倍
Why we picked it
METR 给了具体数字：Anthropic 模型进步快了近两倍，八成加速靠 AI 自己干活，还标注了不确定性，挺少见的坦诚。
独立评估机构 METR 估算，自 2025 年 10 月以来，Anthropic 模型的基准成绩提升速度加快到原来的约 1.9 倍。METR 认为，其中大约 80% 的加速来自 AI 本身被用于研发流程，不过这一估算的不确定性很高。这是 METR 针对单一实验室能力增速给出的量化评估。
Original · kimmonismus
METR estimates that Anthropic is currently making progress in the capabilities of its models about twice as fast as it used to, and that the use of AI itself is driving a large part of this acceleration.
Independent evaluator METR found that Anthropic’s model benchmark scores have improved 1.9x faster since October 2025.
METR estimates that AI may account for around 80% of the current acceleration, though that estimate is highly uncertain.
