别被AI乐观派忽悠了，Gary Marcus用铁路和航空的类比讲清了泡沫破裂后硬件可能迅速贬值的现实，值得一看。
Gary Marcus在FinancialTimes发文指出，即使AI泡沫破裂，新基础设施可能不会像19世纪铁路那样保留价值，因为芯片折旧快，更好的芯片总会问世。他提到LLM可能被更高效模型取代，减少对大量昂贵AI芯片的依赖。Marcus认为LLM不太可能复制当前科技巨头的近乎垄断地位，更可能像航空公司一样受制于低利润、激烈竞争和高硬件依赖。
“If there is a deflation of the AI bubble, the optimists say that the new infrastructure will remain...
“If there is a deflation of the AI bubble, the optimists say that the new infrastructure will remain even if the companies do not — just as railways survived the 19th-century railway bust. However, this fails to reckon with the reality of depreciation (few pieces of silicon hold their value for very long because better chips inevitably come along) and the possibility that LLMs could be displaced by more efficient models less dependent on massive numbers of expensive AI chips. In placing massive hyperscaling bets, investors are setting lavish expectations about future earnings. But LLMs are not likely to replicate the near monopolies that have made the market power of current tech giants hard to assail. A better analogy for them might be airlines, which are hobbled by small margins, intense competition, high expenses and dependence on hardware created by outside vendors.” – @garymarcus in @FinancialTimes 💬 5 🔄 17 ❤️ 67 👀 3775 📊 17 ⚡