这篇论文提出了一个实用工具,帮你检查时间序列模型到底学到了什么,而不仅是预测准确度。
Aionoscope是一个基于生成器的诊断工具,用于调试冻结时间序列表示中的潜在状态可访问性。它通过原始过程混合生成带有精确类别和密集标签的合成流。研究对37个模型加适配器系统进行了线性探测评估,发现粗粒度表示(如成分存在性)容易恢复,但密集过程状态(如时序、相位)的可靠性较低:最高密集探测均值掩码R²为0.689,而密集特征oracle为0.999。该工具揭示了表示可能表面信息丰富但隐藏了调试所需的细粒度变量。
Aionoscope: Debugging Latent-State Accessibility in Time-Series Representations
Time-series models are often evaluated by what they can forecast or classify, but those scores do not show whether their representations preserve the process state a user may want to inspect: event timing, phase, amplitude, frequency, or regime variables. We introduce Aionoscope, a generator-based diagnostic tool for debugging latent-state accessibility in frozen time-series representations. Aionoscope separates process generation from observation rendering, producing seeded synthetic streams with exact categorical and dense labels across mixture complexity and nuisance variation. We instantiate Aionoscope as Primitive Process Mixtures and evaluate 37 model-plus-adapter systems with a common pooled linear-probe protocol. The main result is a mismatch between coarse and fine-grained accessibility. Most systems make component presence easy to recover, but expose dense process state much less reliably: the highest observed dense-probe row reaches 0.689 mean masked $R^2$, while a dense-feature oracle reaches 0.999. This is the failure mode Aionoscope is designed to surface: a representation can look informative at the level of "what kind of signal is present" while hiding the timing, phase, amplitude, frequency, or regime variables needed for debugging.