精神科医生和数字健康研究者有了更可靠的复发预警工具——融合心脏、运动和睡眠多模态信号，比单一指标更准确。做可穿戴设备健康监测的团队可以直接参考其不确定性估计方法。
该研究开发了两种基于智能手表的框架用于日常精神病复发检测。第一种通过预测心脏动力学并标记预测与观测特征之间的偏差作为异常指标；第二种采用多任务学习融合睡眠、运动和心脏信号，学习时间感知嵌入并预测测量时机。两种框架均使用Transformer编码器，并通过多层感知机集成估计预测不确定性，输出每日异常分数。研究表明两种框架捕捉互补的生理信号，因此提出后期融合策略，将两者异常信号结合为统一决策分数。在e-Prevention Grand Challenge数据集上，融合模型比竞赛获胜基线相对提升8%。
Uncertainty-Driven Anomaly Detection for Psychotic Relapse Using Smartwatches: Forecasting and Multi-Task Learning Fusion
Digital phenotyping enables continuous passive monitoring of behavior and physiology, offering a promising paradigm for early detection of psychotic relapse. In this work, we develop and systematically study two smartwatch-based frameworks for daily relapse detection. The first forecasts cardiac dynamics and flags deviations between predicted and observed features as indicators of abnormality. The second adopts a multi-task formulation that fuses sleep with motion and cardiac-derived signals, learning time-aware embeddings and predicting measurement timing. Both pipelines use Transformer encoders and output a daily anomaly score, derived from predictive uncertainty estimated via an ensemble of multilayer perceptrons to improve robustness to real-world wearable variability. While each framework independently demonstrates strong predictive power, we show that they capture complementary physiological signatures. Consequently, we propose a late-fusion strategy that synergistically combines the anomaly signals from both architectures into a unified decision score. We benchmark our methodology on the 2nd e-Prevention Grand Challenge dataset, where our fused model achieves a 8% relative improvement over the competition-winning baseline. Our results, supported by extensive ablation studies, suggest that the integration of diverse digital phenotypes, cardiac, motion, and sleep, is essential for the high-fidelity detection of psychotic relapse in real-world settings.