Goldman Sachs：AI 智能体 Token 消耗量到 2030 年预计增长 24 倍
智能体一次请求能吃掉普通对话几十倍的 Token，Uber 和 Microsoft 都开始算这笔账了，Goldman 给了具体数字。
Goldman Sachs 预测 AI 智能体的 Token 用量到 2030 年将增长 24 倍，月度消耗可能达到 120 quadrillion。与只回答一次的聊天机器人不同，智能体会规划、调用工具、检查结果并重复循环，一次请求可能消耗 10 倍甚至 50 倍以上的 Token。Uber 和 Microsoft 本周已在重新评估高成本的智能体使用。Goldman 的乐观预期是单 Token 推理成本每年下降 60%-70% 来对冲用量增长。
Goldman Sachs earlier said: "Token use by AI agents is expected to multiply 24X by 2030"
AI agents are now creating the first serious cost test for the AI boom. As was reported this week, Uber and Microsoft are already rethinking expensive agent usage.
A chatbot may answer once, but an agent plans, calls tools, checks results, edits mistakes, and repeats the loop.
That loop can make one user request consume 10x, 50x, or even far more tokens than a normal answer.
Goldman’s bullish case is that monthly token use could reach 120 quadrillion by 2030, while inference cost per token keeps falling 60%-70% per year.
The fight is now between agent productivity and token waste.
- PolymarketMoney12:52原文
