Ethan Mollick：开源与闭源模型差距重新拉大
Mollick 观察到 Fable/Astra 这代闭源模型的 agentic 能力开源模型还没跟上，想跟进开源动态的可以看看。
Ethan Mollick 在 X 上表示，目前开源模型与闭源模型之间的差距达到了近期最大。以 Fable/Astra 为代表的新一代闭源模型具备了此前模型没有的 agentic 能力。
他观察到目前没有任何开源模型跨过这道门槛。他认为开源模型一旦突破，将出现一次明显的能力跃升。
Qualitatively, there is now a larger gap between open & closed models than there has been in awhile. Fable/Astra class models are agentic in a way pre-Fable models are not, for better or worse. None of the open models have crossed that line, yet. When they do, it will be a jump.
This report is categorized under AITOP's "Models" desk, focusing on US frontier AI labs and Silicon Valley technology leaders. Within our cross-regional analytical framework, it directly maps to US-China foundation model benchmarks and commercialization comparison and AI developer toolchains, coding agents, and engineering workflows. Key entities and technical topics under continuous tracking include Fable, Astra, 开源模型, 推理模型.
Source attribution: curated from Ethan Mollick (@emollick). Cross-source corroboration: 11 independent sources have covered this development (including IT之家, Bindu Reddy, rohanpaul_ai), confirming industry-wide signal strength.
