Gary Marcus 反驳 Anthropic 高管：AI 不会在 2030 年代初让全球 GDP 翻倍
Anthropic 高管说 AI 投入 2028 年要涨到 4 万亿美元、能让全球 GDP 翻倍，Gary Marcus 直接开怼说这是吹牛，看看两边的理由。
Anthropic 的 Sholto Douglas 在播客中称，超大规模云厂商今年 AI 相关资本开支约 1 万亿美元，若按每年翻倍趋势，2028 年可能达到 4 万亿美元，并在 2030 年代初让人类 GDP 翻倍。Gary Marcus 公开质疑这一说法，指出这类夸张预测从未兑现，质疑平台为何继续传播此类言论。争论焦点在于算力投资的指数增长能否转化为同等量级的经济产出。
AI is absolutely not going to double humanity’s GDP by the early 2030s. Why do we platform these crazy claims that never come true? Fireside Alpha @firesidealpha Anthropic's Sholto Douglas says AI capex could rise from $1 trillion this year to $4 trillion in 2028 and begin doubling humanity’s GDP by the early 2030s “Over the course of the last four or five years, we’ve been 2x-ing or 3x-ing the amount of compute capacity devoted to AI every year." "And so I think that’s roughly, together, the hyperscalers are spending about a trillion dollars this year on capex related to AI. A very interesting question will be, will that trend line hold, and so will it go to $2 trillion next year and then $4 trillion in 2028?" "And if that trend line broadly holds, and you can expand that to encompass the broader robotics industry, then that means that in the early 2030s, you start to get to the point where you’re actually effectively doubling the GDP of humanity, which, again, is a little bit of a ridiculous concept, but requires a lot of things to go right.” Your browser does not support the video tag. 🔗 View on Twitter 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 1 🔄 0 ❤️ 3 👀 587 📊 1 ⚡
