AI 补贴时代终结：按 token 计费成主流，微软取消 Claude Code

AI 补贴时代终结了吗？ @HedgieMarkets 认为：AI 服务的"包月时代"正在结束，按 token 计费正在成为行业默认 · 微软取消内部 Claude Code：理由是基于 token...

AI 补贴时代终结了吗？ @HedgieMarkets 认为：AI 服务的"包月时代"正在结束，按 token 计费正在成为行业默认 · 微软取消内部 Claude Code：理由是基于 token 的计费模式让成本"难以承受"，即便对一家拥有近乎无限云资源的公司也是如此。 · Uber 的 CTO 内部备忘录：警告公司在四个月内烧光了 2026 年全年的 AI 预算。 · 行业定价层面的变化：美国 AI 软件价格上涨 20%–37%，GitHub 正在全线产品中放弃固定费率套餐，转向按用量计费。 摆在面前的两条路，都不太好走 路径 A：维持当前价格 · 企业缩减 AI 用量以适配预算 · AI 公司收入增长放缓，而 labs 正需要营收来支撑 IPO 前的估值 路径 B：AI 公司降价 · 企业用量恢复 · 单位经济性进一步恶化，亏损扩大 Hedgie 用了一张典型的"利润剪刀差"图 · 绿色曲线（Per-Seat Revenue）：按席位收费的订阅收入，呈温和上升； · 红色曲线（Per-Token AI Compute Cost）：按 token 计的算力成本，呈指数式上扬； · 两线在右侧拉开巨大缺口，标注为 "Profit Collapse（利润崩塌）"。 只要定价单位（per-seat）和成本单位（per-token）不匹配，使用量越大，亏损越深。这正是 Claude Code、Codex、Cursor 等"包月制 AI 编程工具"目前面临的结构性问题，也解释了为什么 GitHub 要放弃 flat-rate。 Hedgie @HedgieMarkets 🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products. My Take The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested. This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown. Hedgie🤗 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 3 🔄 1 ❤️ 5 👀 1338 📊 4 ⚡