Gary Marcus 质疑"Anthropic 泄露黄仁勋信息"的确定性

Marcus 同时指出，爆料者当然有动机，但外界并不清楚动机是什么，他将其比作"很多人都有嫌疑的谋杀悬案"。Ding 的分析则补充了背景：英伟达今年 6 月发布了 5500 亿参数的开放权重模型 Nemotron 3 Ultra，黄仁勋曾称 Nemotron 可与 Claude Opus 相提并论且成本更低。Ding 认为英伟达与 Anthropic 在对华芯片出口上的分歧，加上英伟亲自下场做模型的威胁，构成了双方冲突的结构性原因。

这条讨论折射出 AI 产业分层竞争的紧张关系：Anthropic 的训练与推理依赖英伟达 GPU，而英伟达掌握算力瓶颈后有能力向模型层延伸。对观察行业的人来说，这是关于供应链权力与信息战边界的一次公开交锋。

1. What’s the argument here is that it is “pretty much certain” Anthropic leaked stuff about Jensen to the press? (Not saying it was or wasn’t them, but am baffled by the certainty). 2. Since Jensen resigned and many of things said about him seems to have been true, I don’t think it’s fair to call it a smear campaign. Jensen did some bad things, and decided to resign when confronted with them. (We don’t know which were the ones that caused him to cave in.) 3. I agree that whoever outed Jensen did so with motive, but don’t think we really know what their motive was. It’s like a murder mystery when many people had motives. GeLun Ding @gelunding 现在基本可以确定，Anthropic就是这次针对黄仁勋抹黑行动的幕后黑手。向纽约时报爆料老黄和Alice私事的，正是Anthropic联合创始人Jack Clark。而他手里持有的Anthropic股票比Dario还多200万股。除了我之前分析过的双方在对华芯片出口问题上的分歧之外，还有一个几乎没人讨论过的关键问题。 英伟达其实早就准备亲自下场，跟Anthropic和OpenAI抢饭碗了。今年6月，英伟达宣布了Nemotron 3 Ultra，一个拥有5500亿参数的开放权重模型。老黄在四个月前的这段采访里甚至亲口说，Nemotron已经可以跟Claude Opus相提并论，具备接近前沿大模型的能力，而且成本还便宜得多。 你站在Anthropic的角度想想，如果这时候还坐以待毙，那不就是等死吗？一方面，你整个公司的命脉都掌握在英伟达手里，因为训练和运行模型都离不开它的GPU。另一方面，既然英伟达自己掌握着AI模型最核心的瓶颈——算力，那它凭什么不自己训练大模型，直接跟你竞争？AI产业就像一个五层蛋糕，而英伟达完全有潜力把这五层全部吃下来。

This report is categorized under AITOP's "Industry" desk, focusing on US frontier AI labs and Silicon Valley technology leaders. Within our cross-regional analytical framework, it directly maps to US-China foundation model benchmarks and commercialization comparison. Key entities and technical topics under continuous tracking include Anthropic, NVIDIA, Nemotron, Jensen Huang.

Source attribution: curated from Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus).