这些预测直接点出了未来 5 年 AI 行业的赢家和输家，做投资、战略或技术选型的团队值得参考——尤其是 Nvidia 和 OpenAI 的长期前景判断。
AI 评论家 Gary Marcus 转发并点赞了用户 scaling01 的一系列具体预测，包括 OpenAI 将继续保持前沿地位且市值逐年增长、谷歌和中国公司无法在编程和研究速度上超越 Anthropic 或 OpenAI、SpaceX 的 AI 年底前将追平谷歌、Nvidia 将在 5 年内成为首家 10 万亿美元公司。预测还指出，最高等级的智能将成为奢侈品，月费 999 美元以上或每百万 token 超过 150 美元。Marcus 表示即使部分预测可能错误，也欣赏其具体性。
even if @scaling01 turns out to be wrong about some of these, I respect the specificity.
even if @scaling01 turns out to be wrong about some of these, I respect the specificity. Lisan al Gaib @scaling01 a bit more specific: - OpenAI will flourish -> meaning they will stay at the frontier and their market cap continues to increase year over year - Google will not catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI -> on the most important area which is coding time horizons and accelerating their own research - no chinese company will catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI -> same definition as for Google - SpaceX’s AI will be fine and on par with Google by end of year -> again, on coding and R&D no fixed date: - Nvidia will become the first 10T company probably takes longer than 1 year, but likely in the next 5: - most of the companies that invested massively in them will have massive returns - the highest tier of intelligence will become a luxury product that only companies and multi-millionaires/billionaires can afford -> what I see is like $999+ a month subscriptions or models that are much more expensive than current ones meaning >$150/million tokens 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 1 🔄 1 ❤️ 11 👀 2296 📊 2 ⚡