Gary Marcus 质疑AI行业泡沫
Gary Marcus 指出，当前 AI 行业（包括 Google）被误认为会重现搜索引擎的赢家通吃格局（Google 占超 95% 搜索市场），但实际各家都在用同样的数据和方案，没有护城河。他认为没有明确赢家时只能打价格战，导致企业成本远超未来利润。他以 Alphabet 为例：去年 1600 亿美元运营现金流，却仍需发行 400 亿美元股权融资 AI 算力。
Why things will eventually fall apart: 1. Everybody, even Google, seems to be treating AI as if it ...
Why things will eventually fall apart: 1. Everybody, even Google, seems to be treating AI as if it were some kind of winner take all competition like web search was, in which Google taking over 95% 2. But everybody is building essentially the same technical solution with essentially the same data, so there is no moat. 3. If there is no moat, nobody is going to take 90% of the market. 4. With no clear winners, nobody can charge monopoly prices; instead, you get price wars and commodity pricing. 5. Which means everybody will wind up overpaying compared to the modest profits they will be able to make in an intensely competitive regime. Am I missing something? Deirdre Bosa @dee_bosa Alphabet generated over $160b in operating cash flow last year… yet it’s still issuing $40b+ in equity to fund AI compute (including a private placement to berkshire) One of the biggest cash generators in tech is diluting to keep up 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 24 🔄 12 ❤️ 89 👀 7292 📊 27 ⚡