Gary Marcus 晒出他和 Miles Brundage 的 AGI 赌局进度，时间过半只完成 1/10，顺便怼了 Jason 的年底 AGI 预言。观点犀利，适合围观讨论。
Gary Marcus 和 Miles Brundage 在 2024 年底打赌，列出 10 项真 AGI 应能完成的任务，目标时间是 2027 年底。如今赌局时间过半，Marcus 认为 AI 只能做到其中 1 项，最多。他同时批评了 Jason 关于今年底出现 AGI 的说法，认为不切实际。
At the end of 2024, @Miles_Brundage and I made a bet (details at my newsletter) about 10 things (see...
At the end of 2024, @Miles_Brundage and I made a bet (details at my newsletter) about 10 things (see below) that one might expect a true AGI to be able to do, assuming you accept the usual definitions. Since we were targeting the end of 2027 we are now just over halfway through the bet. By my reckoning AI can so far only do 1, at most. @jason ’s idea that we will see AGI by the end this year seems absurd to me. 💬 4 🔄 1 ❤️ 15 👀 2094 📊 5 ⚡