Gary Marcus用一张图反驳Haider：实验室AGI预测十年没大变，学术界仍说2040年后，别被‘永远3-4年’骗了。
Gary Marcus在X上发文，反驳Haider对同一张图的解读，称各AI实验室过去十年对AGI时间线的预测仅小幅调整，平均而言学术界仍预测AGI在2040年后。Haider则认为ChatGPT发布是转折点，虽然LLM尚未实现AGI，但已将时间线从40年压缩至看似永远还有3-4年。Marcus引用图表数据强调，预测变化并不像Haider所说的那样剧烈。
interesting (and completely opposed to @haider1’s take on the same graph) *the labs themselves* have...
interesting (and completely opposed to @haider1 ’s take on the same graph) *the labs themselves* have only modestly changed their predictions on AGI timelines over the last decade. note also that (on average) academics are still predicting AGI after 2040. Haider. @haider1 chatgpt launch was the inflection point LLMs haven't delivered AGI yet, but they have dramatically compressed the timeline, so now, instead of AGI being 40 years away, it seems perpetually 3-4 years away how can anyone still fail to see the exponential progress? 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 1 🔄 1 ❤️ 3 👀 794 📊 1 ⚡