这篇推文用一张图讲清了AI投资的三个浪潮，从聊天到Agent再到物理AI，数字很具体，适合想理解AI基础设施需求的人。
Goldman Sachs预测，到2030年AI代币使用量将增长24倍，企业级Agent每月消耗约120千万亿代币。第一波是聊天，第二波是持续工作的Agent，第三波是物理AI（人形机器人、自动驾驶出租车）。物理AI预计到2040年每月消耗400千万亿代币，成为最大消耗源。每台机器人不仅持续运行推理，还自带硬件，使基础设施投资获得双重回报。
6/ 但要注意，图中2030年前的Agent数据是Goldman Sachs预测；2040年的Physical AI等虚线，则标注为【潜在上限】，并非基准情景。 真正值得关注的不是某个精确数字，而是...
6/ 但要注意，图中2030年前的Agent数据是Goldman Sachs预测；2040年的Physical AI等虚线，则标注为【潜在上限】，并非基准情景。 真正值得关注的不是某个精确数字，而是AI正从“偶尔聊天”变成“持续工作”，再进入现实世界。 你更看好哪一波？ x.com/KyleReidhead/s… Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road @KyleReidhead This is the most important chart to understand right now as an AI investor There are 3 waves of token consumption. Each wave is bigger than the last, and we're only just starting wave 2 Wave 1: Chat Wave 2: Agents Wave 3: Physical AI (humanoids, robotaxis) Token usage is expected to multiply 24 TIMES by 2030, with enterprise agents alone burning ~120 quadrillion tokens/month The growth in chat is limited from here, but that's ok because wave 2 has already kicked off and its accelerating extremely fast right now Wave 2 is Agents that work continuously instead of answering one prompt at a time, enterprises deploy them by the thousand, and consumer agents (the new Siri, Gemini on Android) haven't even shipped at scale yet. That's the 24x, and it's why compute, memory and power demand keeps accelerating through 2030 But wave 3 is the real kicker and it crushes everything else. This is the part that isn't in many of the models today. Physical AI: Humanoids, robotaxis, autonomous machines. Expected to be the biggest consumer by 2030 and reach 400 quadrillion tokens a month by 2040, the biggest of every category on the chart And here's why wave 3 is different for infra investors: it pays the infra stack TWICE. Every robot runs inference around the clock (tokens), and every robot IS hardware itself too. A humanoid carries roughly 10x the memory of an advanced car, plus the sensors, chips and power systems. Wave 3 demand shows up in tokens AND in physical components As I've said many times before, the demand for compute and AI infra is infinite becuase the demand for intelligence is infinite. As the form factors we use intelligence continue to grow, the demand does too The sooner you understand this, the sooner it becomes easier to learn how to invest in it. or to make it even easier, you can track my real-time portfolio and 4 other analysts' with live trade notifications and research inside Milk Road PRO. It's just $1 to try it out right now, learn more here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z If you enjoyed this, give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 1 🔄 0 ❤️ 0 👀 218 📊 1 ⚡