AI资本支出需10万亿美元收入来合理化

Whatever you may think of Generative AI, the Capex craze is absolutely bonkers: “we are potentially ...

Whatever you may think of Generative AI, the Capex craze is absolutely bonkers: “we are potentially talking about AI needing to generate $10 trillion in annual sales to justify all the capex being thrown at it. For reference, global spending on food (including restaurants) is around $10 trillion. Health care is about the same amount. The entire global software market is only $1.4 trillion.” Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA $10 Trillion In Annual AI Revenue May Be Necessary To Monetize All The Capex Being Plowed Into Data Centers Hyperscaler capex is expected to reach $1 trillion in 2027, most of which will be AI-related. Let us assume that a capex bust is avoided and capital spending remains at $1 trillion. Let us also assume a blended depreciation rate of 13%, which is roughly what the hyperscalers are currently assuming. In steady state, the gross value of hyperscaler assets will then converge to 1/0.13=$7.7 trillion, with $1 trillion in annual depreciation expense. Using a straight-line depreciation approach, the net stock of hyperscaler assets will settle at about 0.5*7.7=$3.8 trillion. The hyperscalers currently enjoy a pre-tax return on invested capital of 30%-50%. Just to steelman the argument, let us use the lower end of that range. In that case, they would need to generate 0.3*3.8=$1.2 trillion in annual EBIT, implying 1+1.2=$2.2 trillion in EBITDA. Analysts expect the EBITDA margins for the hyperscalers to rise to around 50% by the end of the decade. If they were to achieve this, they would need to generate 2.2/0.5=$4.3 trillion in annual revenue. That is $526 for every man, woman, and child on Earth. However, if EBITDA margins were to fall back to 30%, which is what they were in recent years, the required revenue would rise to 2.2/0.3=$7.2 trillion. Keep in mind that the foregoing calculation does not even include revenue from SpaceX, the neoclouds, or Chinese AI companies. If one were to include those companies and others, we are potentially talking about AI needing to generate $10 trillion in annual sales to justify all the capex being thrown at it. For reference, global spending on food (including restaurants) is around $10 trillion. Health care is about the same amount. The entire global software market is only $1.4 trillion. Clients can read the rest of the report here: bcaresearch.com/reports/chief-… 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 3 🔄 12 ❤️ 28 👀 2565 📊 8 ⚡