Dwarkesh Patel 和他的双胞胎兄弟讨论了 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 如何通过更好的计算力货币化来控制全球大部分计算力，这是一个值得关注的趋势。
Dwarkesh Patel 和他的双胞胎兄弟讨论了未来几年实验室经济的变化，从推理转向训练，以及Anthropic 和 OpenAI 将在几年内控制大部分可用的 FLOPs，因为它们能更好地货币化计算力并出价高于所有人。讨论还涉及了到 2020 年底预计将看到的超过 10 万亿美元的 AI 总资本支出是否会导致主权债务危机，以及是否有什么可以抵消行业集中化趋势的力量。
"Two labs will soon control most of the world’s compute"
"Two labs will soon control most of the world’s compute" Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp Had a lot of fun chatting again with my twin brother @dylan522p We went through lab economics over the next few years - the shift from inference to training as RSI draws near; and how Anthropic and OpenAI are on track to control most of the world’s usable FLOPs within the next few years (because they can monetize compute better and thus outbid everyone). And then we discuss whether the >$10T of total AI capex we’ll see by the end of the decade will cause a sovereign debt crisis, where hyperscaler debt raises interest rates, drives non-AI exposed countries into bankruptcy, and crashes non-AI equities. One question we weren’t able to resolve is whether there’s anything that can counter all the forces barrelling towards centralization in this industry - the economies of scale in training, the scarcity of compute, and eventually continual learning and RSI. 0:00:00 – Two labs will soon control most of the world’s compute 0:07:01 – $6 billion in fab capex enables $1t+ of end revenue 0:13:08 – Compute prices will rise if the labs outbid everyone 0:18:22 – Which layer will capture most of the surplus? 0:25:40 – Will datacenter regulation slow down AI? 0:29:43 – Labs are shifting compute from inference to R&D 0:33:27 – China gets less than 10% of new compute, but its labs need less 0:48:48 – Will AI cause a sovereign debt crisis? 1:07:52 – Will the world's future workforce belong to a few companies? Your browser does not support the video tag. 🔗 View on Twitter 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 13 🔄 5 ❤️ 65 👀 10633 📊 16 ⚡