Meta 不配合放慢节奏，美国实验室的"Pacing"共识宣告瓦解
分析 Meta 退出后美国 AI 放速联盟怎么散架的，讲清了算力、政策和监管三者的关系。
Andrew Curran 分析认为，美国实验室之间的"Pacing"（放慢训练节奏）约定因 Meta 退出而失效。Mark Zuckerberg 多年持续投入算力资本开支，曾在财报电话会上表示宁可超支也要为下一次 10 倍提升备足算力。特朗普、Zuckerberg 和黄仁勋在政策上立场一致，联邦政府不会通过监管强制实验室减速。这一格局最早要到 2029 年才可能改变，而作者判断 2029 已超出 ASI 时间窗口。
Pacing is out the window. For it to work, every American lab needed to be on board, Mark Zuckerberg has repeatedly made it clear that he is not interested. One defection among US labs breaks it all, as the others will be forced to accelerate or get passed. Mark has a staggering amount of compute and has been all in on compute capex for years; even in the face of some investor opposition he never stopped building his infra once. He said on the the earnings call a couple of years ago that he'd rather overspend now, and potentially even be wrong, than not have the compute when he needed it for the next 10x. He's finally hitting his stride, and he is not going to slow down.
For Team Pacing to solve a defection like this, they would have needed a supportive, pro-Pacing administration that was passing capability regulations and was willing to use the power of the federal government to enforce them and bring noncompliant labs into line. They don't have any of this. In fact, it's the opposite! Mark has Trump's ear, and President Trump, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen are completely aligned on policy; It's full speed ahead, and if you want to pace yourself, go ahead, but don't tell anyone else what to do. This breaks Pacing.
None of this changes until 2029 at the earliest, and to me, 2029 is past the ASI window. The last election, as it turns out, really was the most important one in history.
