符号回归用于母猪分娩预测：可解释模型误差9.28小时

Exploring the Potential of Symbolic Regression in Precision Livestock Farming

The ability to predict farrowing time in pigs is crucial for optimal farm management and ensuring piglet survival. This study investigates the potential of explainable artificial intelligence for precision livestock farming, focusing on acceleration sensor data from sows around the time of farrowing. Accurately predicting farrowing allows farmers to balance both, piglet safety by avoiding piglet crushing events and the mother sow's welfare, by avoiding early crating. Traditional machine learning models often lack interpretability (``closed-box'' problem). Explainable artificial intelligence offers a solution by revealing the decision-making processes within the models. This work is split into two stages. First the detection of nest building behaviour and second the prediction of the remaining time to farrowing. The nest building detection was possible for 166 out of 180 sows and successful within 48 hours before farrowing for 149 sows. The nest building detection is purely based on the change of a sow's activity level and uses no machine learning techniques. Further, this study utilizes symbolic regression, an open-box modelling technique that generates interpretable mathematical formulas, to predict the remaining time until the onset of farrowing. The results are compared with closed-box models, like support vector regression and artificial neural networks, for both explainability and performance. Notably, symbolic regression achieved a mean absolute error of 9.28 hours for the time-to-farrowing prediction, outperforming the closed-box models in terms of performance and interpretability. This research demonstrates that explainable artificial intelligence, specifically symbolic regression, can offer both interpretable results and competitive performance in precision livestock farming.