Andreessen的预测点出了AI行业的关键趋势——智能将变得像电力一样普及，做AI应用开发或部署的团队可以提前规划模型选择策略，降低运营成本。
a16z联合创始人Marc Andreessen在X上分享了他对AI模型使用格局的看法。他认为未来不会只有少数“God模型”垄断所有AI使用，而是智能将像微芯片或互联网一样商品化，变得极其廉价甚至免费。大多数应用场景不需要超级智能，只需低成本模型即可满足需求。Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong补充说，未来12-18个月内80%的工作负载将运行在便宜99%的模型上，而20%的高价值任务（如科学突破）仍会使用最先进的模型。他认为限制因素将是能源和计算，而非模型本身。
.@pmarca on why God models don't eat all AI usage: "There's one version of the world in which you h...
. @pmarca on why God models don't eat all AI usage: "There's one version of the world in which you have a small number of what we sometimes call God models... millions of processors, with billions or hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars of CapEx and training, investment behind it." "That's the equivalent of the world of search that we've been in for the last basically 20 years." "There's another scenario, what they sometimes call a race to the bottom, which is no, actually what happens is intelligence commoditizes." "The analogy there would be maybe what's happened in the microchip market... A really good one costs a few thousand dollars, there's companies like Arm that sell them for pennies. And you can put a microchip in anything, and it's super cheap, and everybody does it." "My guess basically is what we're about to see is something a lot like the microchip or the internet." "You'll be able to basically summon intelligence at some level into any application you need for basically very cheap or ultimately basically the same as free. And then you'll have the God models in the background when you need the super genius, but for most things, you don't actually need a super genius." Your browser does not support the video tag. 🔗 View on Twitter Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong Good take My guess is - demand for intelligence is near infinite - but 80% of workloads will be running on 99% cheaper models within 12-18 months - 20% of workloads will still run on latest gen models where IQ maxing is important (scientific breakthroughs, higher level ochestrator agents?) - rough analogy might be what % of macbooks or gaming PCs sold have the maxed out specs for CPU/GPU, prices are falling much faster than Moore's law here though - this leads me to think the limiting factor will be energy and compute, not better models At Coinbase we're working hard on routing prompts to cheaper models where appropriate, and in some cases have been able to keep costs roughly flat, while token usage continues to grow exponentially. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 7 🔄 7 ❤️ 41 👀 9463 📊 13 ⚡