Gary Marcus把OpenAI的9个风险点重新摆上台面，关注AI投资和公司基本面的读者值得一读，看完会对OpenAI的估值逻辑多一分警惕。
Gary Marcus在X上发文称，软银似乎难以用其持有的OpenAI股份获得保证金贷款，这让他重新提起两年前关于OpenAI可能成为“AI界的WeWork”的9条担忧。这些担忧包括：竞争对手追赶、被迫降价、核心员工离职、Meta新模型免费且性能相当、Sora迟迟未发布、GPT-5延迟、运行成本高、可靠性和事实性问题未解决、从未盈利且可能永远无法盈利。Marcus认为，这些早期警告至今仍然有效。
With SoftBank apparently struggling to get a margin loan against it’s OpenAI shares, it’s maybe time...
With SoftBank apparently struggling to get a margin loan against it’s OpenAI shares, it’s maybe time to repost this, from two years ago. The vast majority of my earlier worries remain: Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus @GaryMarcus 9 reasons that OpenAI could someday be seen as the WeWork of AI: 👉 Lots of competitors are catching up. 👉 OpenAI has been forced to cut prices. 👉 A number of key employees have departed. 👉 Meta’s newest model is likely to be on par with GPT-4 and free. 👉 After 5 months, Sora still hasn’t shipped 👉 GPT-5 is long delayed, likely at least until 2025. 👉 Even if GPT-5 ships, it will likely be quite costly to run. 👉 Core problems of reliability & factuality aren’t likely to be solved. 👉 They have never turned a profit; and they might never. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 3 🔄 2 ❤️ 6 👀 991 📊 3 ⚡