如果你想看语言模型在世界杯预测上的硬核评测，这个基准用104场真实比赛对比了13个系统，结果比博彩市场强得有限，但细节预测有亮点。
WorldCupArena是一个动态基准，用于评估语言模型和深度研究代理在足球预测上的表现。它首次基于2026年FIFA世界杯的104场比赛和13个系统进行评测，模型需预测结果、比分、球员和事件等。基准报告结果准确率、精确比分准确率和比分线得分，其中比分线得分在预测接近时给予部分分数。最佳系统相比博彩市场和球迷基线在结果和精确比分准确率上仅小幅提升，但在比分线得分上表现更优。代码、提示、预测和评估脚本已在GitHub开源。
WorldCupArena: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Language Models and Deep-Research Agents on Football Forecasting
Predicting a football match before kickoff requires more than knowing past results: a model must use changing information and make a clear prediction before the answer is available. We present WorldCupArena, a dynamic benchmark for language models and deep-research agents. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is its first evaluation, and the same process can be reused for future leagues and cups. Before each match, a model either receives a common evidence package or searches for information itself. It predicts the result and score, likely players and events, match statistics, and the outcome of the competition. After the match, these predictions are compared with the recorded result. We report result accuracy, exact-score accuracy, and a scoreline score that gives some credit when a predicted score is close but not exact, together with scores for the other prediction tasks. Across 104 matches and 13 systems, models with similar result accuracy differ more clearly on detailed predictions. Compared with betting-market and human-fan baselines, the best system shows only small gains in result and exact-score accuracy, but a clearer gain in Scoreline. New schedules can be added as they begin, allowing the benchmark to evaluate future models without using outcomes that are already known. Code, prompts, predictions, and evaluation scripts are open sourced at https://github.com/wzk1015/WorldCupArena.