Gary Marcus 用具体数字拆穿了 Anthropic 年入 1500 亿美元的夸张说法，点出了中国模型竞争和盈利困境，值得一看。
Gary Marcus 指出 Derek Thompson 对 Anthropic 收入的预测过于乐观。Anthropic 第二季度收入 109 亿美元，但得益于一次性补贴和 tokenmaxxing 热潮，之后面临 Kimi K3、GLM 5.2 等中国模型的激烈竞争。Marcus 认为全年达到 1000 亿美元以上不现实，且对比 Elon Musk 旗下公司收入（特斯拉 940 亿、SpaceX 180 亿、X 30 亿）具有误导性。关键在于盈利，Anthropic 除 Q2 外每季度都亏损，Q3 前景不明。
This post on Anthropic by @dkthomp sounds compelling but I don’t think it actually is. 1. The proje...
This post on Anthropic by @dkthomp sounds compelling but I don’t think it actually is. 1. The projections of Anthropic’s revenue are likely overoptimistic. Their big Q2 was projected to be $10.9B (after $4.8B in Q1) but importantly that was at the height of tokenmaxxing, and before strong new competition from Chinese models like Kimi K3 and GLM 5.2, and at moment, now perhaps over, when they were media darlings. I really don’t see them getting to $100B+ for the year with $85B+ to go, given the new headwinds. 2. Not really fair to compare to Elon’s companies, which actually aren’t wildly impressive on revenue. Only Tesla is even in the top 100. Even if Anthropic’s revenue *was* $150B, that still would NOT put them in the top 25 US companies by revenue [ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l… ]. So I find framing the comparison in terms of Elon’s net worth (mostly based on speculation about the future) to be a bit misleading. 3. The real long-term question is about profits. Anthropic’s best quarter was Q2 of this year, but that relied on a big one-time subsidy for Elon, and again was at the height of tokenmaxxing and before the sharpest Chinese competition. In every other quarter they lost money and it’s not at clear how Q3 will turn out. Derek Thompson @DKThomp Dwarkesh—who would know—estimates that Anthropic will earn $100-150 billion in revenue this year. How much is that? Well, Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Last year his companies made in revenue: - $94B (Tesla) - $18B (SpaceX) - $3B (X) In other words, it's not out of the question that Anthropic—which barely had any revenue before 2023—could make more in 2026 than all of Musk, Inc earned in 2025, and possibly surpass his companies' ARR in the next few months. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 2 🔄 2 ❤️ 12 👀 2204 📊 3 ⚡