Apollo 首席经济学家 Torsten Slok 发布报告：AI 宏观影响有限，企业把 token 支出当成本
Apollo 的经济学家 Slok 放了份看空 AI 的报告，说企业不愿为最新模型付钱、生产率几乎没涨，跟市面上乐观论调反着来。
Apollo 首席经济学家 Torsten Slok 在报告中称，主流企业不需要最新模型也不愿为此付费，token 支出正被当作拖累利润率的成本中心。他引用全要素生产率增长接近 0% 的数据，认为 AI 的宏观经济影响将非常有限，Agentic AI 和 token 支出只集中在少数企业。他还认为更便宜的通用模型无法弥合差距，因为商业价值依赖判断、问责、信任和不成文规则，而这些 AI 并不理解。
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok just published a gloomy report on AI.
imo, other signals I’m watching don’t really support these.
> Slok says mainstream firms don’t need the latest model and won’t pay for it, and with no bottom-line gain they now treat token spending as a cost center that weighs on margins.
> He says, total factor productivity growth sits near 0%, and Slok expects AI’s macro effect to stay very limited while agentic AI and token spending remain confined to a small slice of firms.
> Argues cheaper, commoditized models may not close the gap, because per him, business value depends on judgment, accountability, trust and unwritten rules that AI doesn’t understand.
