Ramez Naam 分析：AI 能力提升成本两年翻 8 倍
Gary Marcus 转发了 Ramez Naam 的成本分析：Anthropic 提升模型能力的花费两年涨到 8 倍，数据来自 METR 报告，争议不小但值得看看算法。
Ramez Naam 基于 METR 报告和内部模型数据估算，Anthropic 每十亿美元投入换来的能力提升随时间呈指数级下降。提升 AI 能力的成本已是 2 年前的 8 倍，且在对数尺度上仍在恶化。Gary Marcus 认为这一结果说明深度学习的改进正以越来越高的代价换取，财务上难以持续。
You might say “deep learning is hitting a wall”. This is a really profound result: although GenAi companies are still eking out improvements, those improvements are coming at ever greater costs, in a way that is unlikely to be fiscally sustainable. Ramez Naam @ramez Anthropic is gaining exponentially less capability per billion dollars spent over time. It's now 8x as expensive to boost AI capabilities as it was 2 years ago, getting worse on a log scale. This includes METR report & internal models. Credit to @alexolegimas , @sebkrier , and @michael_wiebe for inspiration. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 1 🔄 2 ❤️ 18 👀 2565 📊 3 ⚡
