顶级风投用数据揭示了 AI 公司估值跃迁的惊人概率，做投资或关注 AI 商业化的读者值得一看——万亿俱乐部正在加速扩容。
Coatue Management 联合创始人 Thomas Laffont 在 All-In Podcast 上分享数据：独角兽（10 亿美元）成为十角兽（100 亿美元）的概率约 8%，十角兽成为百角兽（1000 亿美元）的概率为 8%-13%，但百角兽达到万亿估值的概率高达 31%。他指出 OpenAI、Anthropic 和 SpaceX 今年可能跨过万亿门槛，且近期已有三家公司在同一年内从 5000 亿跃升至万亿市值，速度远超历史。这预示着 AI 驱动的 IPO 浪潮即将到来。
"Data showed us that if you're a unicorn ($1B), th…
"Data showed us that if you're a unicorn ($1B), the odds of you one day becoming a decacorn ($10B) are about 8%.
If you're a decacorn, the odds of you becoming a $100B company is around 8% to 13%.
But if you're a centacorn ($100B), the odds change significantly - you now have a 31% chance of having had a 10x i.e. to $1 Tn valuation."
Thomas Laffont is explaining the massive AI-driven IPO wave coming in this year. OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX each potentially crossing trillion dollar valuation.
Thomas Laffont is the co-founder of Coatue Management, a major technology-focused investment firm (hedge fund + venture/private equity) with roughly $70 billion in assets under management.
"And if we look at how quickly these companies are creating value, this is a chart that I added at the last minute because the data is so fresh. But you can see that it typically takes multiple years to go from $500 billion to $1 trillion in market cap.
Well, something happened very recently in the public market, which is that not only did we have three companies do it in the same year, but we had two companies do it in a matter of weeks."
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From "All-In Podcast and Coatue Management" YouTube channel, (link in comment)