Gary Marcus 澄清"AI 已死"误读并给出行业预测
Gary Marcus 本人出来辟谣"AI 已死"，还预测了数据中心估值泡沫和下一代架构的时间表，观点挺清晰。
Gary Marcus 在 X 上发帖澄清几点误读：他表示自己从未说过"AI is over"，DeepSeek 在 2025 年 1 月引发的那波恐慌让英伟达单日蒸发约 6000 亿美元市值，但随后行情仍然走高。他预测真正可能终结的是数据中心的天量估值与指数级投入，而非生成式 AI 本身。他还认为未来主流是结合工具的神经符号模型，纯 LLM 的热度正在下降，新架构超越当前 AI 可能需要数年。
Clearing up some strawmen and making some predictions about what might come next: 1. AI isn’t not over. I am not saying that. [Did anyone actually say “AI is over” after the DeepSeek moment? (I did not.)] 2. Is anyone saying that now? (I am not.) 3. What might actually be over is the era of insanely high valuations and exponentially increasing investments in data centers. 4. People will continue to use generative AI (now mostly via harnessed neurosymbolic models of with tools rather than the pure LLMs that are no longer popular). 5. New architectures will eventually eclipse today’s AI, but it may take several years. cc @dee_bosa Deirdre Bosa @dee_bosa todays AI market action is brutal, but reminder this isn’t the first "AI-is-over’" panic. Deepseek in Jan 2025 was a record ~$600b single day hit for Nvidia and the complex still went higher from there. Trajectory > one ugly day. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 0 🔄 0 ❤️ 0 👀 232 ⚡
