RICE-Alpha：基于事件图的LLM股票预测框架发布
RICE-Alpha: Reliability-Informed Correction with Event Graphs for LLM-Agent Stock Forecasting
一篇把 LLM Agent 用于选股的论文，核心是用事件图做历史延续性修正，美股和港股回测净夏普都超过 1.6，量化圈可以看看。
论文提出 RICE-Alpha（Reliability-Informed Correction with Event Graphs），一个点时（point-in-time）股票评分框架，将历史感知的多视图 Base Alpha 与基于历史事件延续的可靠性校准残差修正分离。系统包含 Multi-Tier Memory Layer 用于约束新闻解读的时间有效性，以及 Typed Event Agent 构建事件状态图。在 2024-2026 年 Nasdaq-100 与恒生指数日度数据上，其 ICIR 超过最强基线两倍以上，美国与香港市场的净夏普比率分别达到 1.656 和 1.725。美国市场消融实验显示移除主要组件后 IC 和 RankIC 经 Holm 校正显著下降。
RICE-Alpha: Reliability-Informed Correction with Event Graphs for LLM-Agent Stock Forecasting
Equity-relevant news evolves through temporally dependent corporate events, making historical information useful only when event continuity, information availability, and transition reliability are modeled. Existing LLM-based financial agents incorporate historical evidence, yet they provide limited support for preserving issuer-specific chronology under point-in-time constraints and for identifying when historical transitions contribute information beyond the current forecast. We present RICE-Alpha (Reliability-Informed Correction with Event Graphs), a point-in-time stock-scoring framework that separates a history-aware multi-view Base Alpha from a reliability-calibrated residual correction derived from historical event continuation. A Multi-Tier Memory Layer grounds news interpretation in temporally eligible issuer-specific history, while a Typed Event Agent constructs event states whose successor relations are formed within issuers and pooled across firms only after valid local pairing. Matured transitions are calibrated by their empirical reliability, and the resulting graph signal is residualized against the Base Alpha and technical view to obtain the RICE Delta. On daily Nasdaq-100 and Hang Seng Index panels from 2024 to 2026, RICE-Alpha achieves the strongest results among the evaluated LLM-based agents and momentum across four predictive and four portfolio-level metrics. Its ICIR more than doubles that of the strongest baseline, while net Sharpe ratios reach 1.656 and 1.725 in the U.S. and Hong Kong, respectively. U.S. ablations further show significant reductions in IC and RankIC after Holm adjustment when major components are removed. These results indicate that historical event continuation adds incremental information when it is temporally grounded, reliability-calibrated, and introduced as a residual correction to a multi-view forecast.
