Gary Marcus 对 AI 行业的五条预测：估值泡沫、神经符号架构与新机会
Gary Marcus 在市场大跌当天发了五条预测，拿 DeepSeek 时期 Nvidia 单日跌 6000 亿美元的先例来对照现在的恐慌，观点偏冷但推理值得一看。
Gary Marcus 在 X 上发文回应 AI 市场大跌，指出 DeepSeek 时刻曾让 Nvidia 单日蒸发约 6000 亿美元市值，但之后股价仍继续上涨。他预测生成式 AI 的高估值时代和数据中心投资狂潮可能结束。他还认为纯粹 LLM 已不再流行，未来主流将是结合工具与循环的神经符号模型。他同时表示更可靠的新架构可能需要数年才能取代今天的 AI，而这一代 AI 被高估了。
Five predictions about what might come next: 1. AI isn’t not over. [Did anyone actually say “AI is over” after the DeepSeek moment? (I did not. Is anyone saying that now? I am not.] 2. What might actually be over is the era of insanely high valuations - for generative AI — and exponentially increasing investments in data centers. 3. People will continue to use generative AI (now mostly via harnessed neurosymbolic models with tools and loops rather than the once dominant pure LLMs that are no longer popular). 4. New, more reliable architectures will eventually displace today’s AI, but it may take several years, or more. 5. A newer generation of AI will actually be worth a lot of money; this one was overrated and people will eventually see that in hindsight. cc @dee_bosa Deirdre Bosa @dee_bosa todays AI market action is brutal, but reminder this isn’t the first "AI-is-over’" panic. Deepseek in Jan 2025 was a record ~$600b single day hit for Nvidia and the complex still went higher from there. Trajectory > one ugly day. 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 3 🔄 4 ❤️ 26 👀 2046 📊 5 ⚡
